Oil gained almost 20% through February as global vaccine rollouts gathered pace and promised cuts from OPEC+ materialised. The continued cuts from OPEC+, plus extra voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia, saw the supply/demand balance begin to shift. The market is optimistic about returning demand as vaccines are administered around the world. Goldman Sachs increased their oil forecast for 2021 by $10/bbl, providing further reassurance to investors. All eyes will be on the next OPEC meeting, due to take place next week. With prices now back at pre-pandemic levels, it's expected that production cuts will be eased further.
The carbon market also made significant gains throughout February, touching over €40/tCO2e at times. Most of the rally was driven by strengthening oil and equities markets, on general optimism around virus recovery. Some strength can also be attributed to the cooler weather, and the upcoming colder weather for the start of March. Cold weather increases demand so fossil fuel generators will need to buy more permits to offset increased production emissions.
In the shorter term, we expect some volatility in early March as temperatures and wind generation are forecast to sit well below norms for the first week. Continued healthy gas supply should calm some market nerves. Further ahead, we appear to have passed the winter peak, with prices now generally on a downwards trajectory as we approach the summer season. Strength from oil and carbon do feed into seasonal UK gas and power contracts so an increase in production from OPEC+ could see prices soften slightly.
Backwardation is still in full play across gas and power markets. Fixed clients with April renewals should be ready to refresh prices in the next 2 weeks with a view to signing off. Alternatively, clients should select a longer-term flexible strategy to take advantage of any emerging opportunities to secure volume further ahead.
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